It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
